We are all equal before a wave

Will this crisis last for another 2 months? Or 2 years?
What we can learn from history.

A pandemic timeline from 1 to 500 million cases:

Mar – Albert Gitchell, a US Army cook in Kansas, is hospitalised with the virus
Apr – The virus spreads through the US Army and throughout the US.
May – US troops are deployed to Europe and the virus spreads across Europe
Jul – The fight against the virus appears successful and while it kills millions, it appears to be under control.

Aug – British troops head to Europe and the US reinfected by a mutated strain
Sep – 195,000 Americans die, a new wave leads to lockdowns worldwide
Oct – Over six months, social distancing measures are put in place
Nov – The cities that lift measures too early have a relapse and more deaths
Jan – After victory over the virus, a third wave begins in Australia
Feb – The third wave reaches Europe, Africa and USA
Nov – Two years after patient zero, the Spanish Flu finally disappears

World War I lasted 4 years.
The Spanish Flu lasted 2 years.
By the end of World War I, 20 million died from the war.
50 to 100 million died from the Spanish Flu.

During the 2004 Asian Tsunami, people were both washed away and alerted by the first wave, which rose 2.5m out of the ocean. There was a full five minutes before the second wave came. It, rose ten times higher than the first wave at up to 30m. Like the Spanish Flu, it was the second and third wave that did the most damage and took the most life.

What can we learn from both these tragic instances?

Nature works in waves
Nature works at an incomprehensibly huge scale
Humans always underestimate nature’s size and timeframe
Nature gives warnings that we often fail to hear
What we’re experiencing now, huge as it is, is just the first wave.

All the news and focus is on ‘flattening the curve’ of this first wave.

What happens after this first wave falls away several months from now?

Countries will relax lockdowns but the fear of a second wave will keep borders tight for much longer. Things will only go back to normal not when your country controls the virus, but when all countries control them. The first wave may take three to six months to be over, but (unless there’s a miracle cure) the waves are likely to continue for at least one to two years. The second wave will either be the virus going viral again, or economic destruction.

What would you do differently if you expected a series of growing waves instead of just weathering this first one?

The wisest path is to plan for more waves, and plan for the long term.
If by some miracle, it all ends earlier, then that’s a massive bonus.
So hope for a miracle, but don’t bet on it.

Plan for the worst.
Hope for the best.
Source: Roger Hamilton