Oil is down $100 a barrel for the first time since February 10.
Is this the result of a classic yo-yo short in anticipation of a major advance in the price?
There will be little opportunity for this derivative to operate again as we move into the summer volatility.
As prices fell, TV pundits immediately paraded the usual suspects. They cited disappointing U.S. job figures, renewed concerns over European debt in general, and the Spanish situation in particular, while so-called “analysts” clamored over a possible double-dip recession.
These concerns are not new, nor are they revelations.
Plus, the essential reasons why the price should be moving in the opposite direction – namely up – haven’t gone anywhere. The constriction produced by supply/demand considerations remain, and the insufficient volume available to meet unexpected demand surges and the geopolitical environment – especially the impending European boycott of Iranian crude imports – remain in full force.
The overall market dynamics still point strongly to a rise in price.
Yet the overall movement of crude oil futures has remained peculiarly restrained. In fact, WTI has given back 6.1% in the past week, and some 2.7% for the month.
Here’s what’s really happening… see more details.
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